When US President Donald Trump lands on Tuesday in Riyadh, he will be welcomed with opulent ceremonies, golden palaces and the prospect of $ 1 billion in investments. But, the unleashed war in Gaza refused him a goal in which he wanted a long time: the normalization of Saudi Arabia.
Behind the scenes, American officials discreetly press Israel to accept an immediate cease-fire in Gaza-one of the prerequisites of Saudi Arabia for any restart of standardization talks, said two gulf sources close to official circles and an American official.
Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, an audience of the Israeli Embassy told Washington this week that he was expecting to progress in the widening of the Abraham agreements, a set of transactions negotiated by Trump in his first mandate under which Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco recognized Israel.
“We think we will have very, very, very, which, we hope, will make us progress by next year,” said Witkoff in a video of his speech. He should accompany Trump during his visit to the Middle East.
However, the opposition of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a permanent judgment of war or the creation of a Palestinian state progresses in similar talks with Riyadh, unlikely, said two of the sources.
Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel as legitimate, which means that the two most advanced economies and military powers in the Middle East have no official diplomatic links. Supporters of the normalization of relations claim that this would bring stability and prosperity to the region, while contravening the influence of Iran.
The links have become particularly toxic to Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, since the start of the War of Israel in Gaza.
As such, the question, at the center of bilateral talks, in Trump’s first mandate, was effectively delimited by economic issues and other security issues between Washington and the Kingdom, according to six other sources with which Reuters spoke for this story, including two Saudis and two US officials. People have all asked to remain anonymous to talk about sensitive diplomatic conversations.
The de facto sovereign of Saudi Arabia, the crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman, needs the Gaza war to end and a credible path to a Palestinian state “before re -engage in the issue of normalization,” said Dennis Ross, former American negotiator.
In the meantime, Washington and Riyadh will concentrate the trip of Trump largely on the economic partnership and other regional questions, according to the six sources. Lucrative investments such as the main weapons, mega-project and artificial intelligence agreements are at stake, officials on both sides have stressed.
The approach was cemented in diplomatic talks between Saudi officials and US officials before the trip, the first official visit to Trump’s second term, they said.
Trump’s declared objective is to guarantee an investment of billions of dollars in American companies, based on an initial commitment of $ 600 billion promised by the Crown Prince.
The rich kingdom, the best oil exporter in the world, knows the ritual well: dazzle the guest, guaranteeing the favor. The objective, the sources said, told Reuters, is to escape diplomatic terrestrial mines and perhaps, it was said, to win Trump concessions on the Gaza War and its consequences.
“The Trump administration wants this trip to be a big problem.
“The standardization of links with Israel is a much heavier elevator than deploying the red carpet for President Trump and announcing investment agreements,” he said.
A spokesperson for the State Department refused to comment on any understanding before the trip, saying that Trump “will seek to strengthen links between the United States and our Arab Gulf partners during visits.”
The Saudi government’s communications office has not responded to a request for comments.
Bear the kingdom
Before Hamas launched its attacks on October 7 against Israel – killing 1,200 people and triggering the devastating Israeli offensive in Gaza – the crown prince finalized a historic diplomatic agreement: an American defense pact in exchange for Riyadh recognizing Israel.
But the extent of the Israel campaign, killing 52,000 people and moving 1.9 million to Gaza, forced a break in talks. Bin Salman accused Israel of genocide.
Frustrated by the impact of the prolonged Gaza crisis on standardization efforts, Trump could use his visit to unveil an American framework to end the 18 -month war, the two sources of the Gulf said.
The plan could create a transitional government and new post-war security arrangements-potentially reshaping regional diplomacy and open the door to future standardization talks, they said.
Stressing diplomacy with high issues in progress, Trump met the Minister of Israeli Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer on Thursday to discuss the war and nuclear talks with Iran, Axios reported.
The US State Department did not immediately answer questions about Trump’s discussions on Gaza.
Trump obviously did not announce a visit to Israel as part of his tour of the region. Two diplomats noted that the American president recently refrained from talking about his plan “Gaza Riviera” which has rabid the Arab world with the suggestion to reinstall the entire population of Gazan and the American property of the Strip.
In the construction of the trip, Washington has taken a number of positive actions for Saudi Arabia. An agreement to prevent us from bombing the Houthis in Yemen is in accordance with a Saudi ceasefire. Washington has also deliberated civilian nuclear talks from the standardization issue.
The Saudi Defense Pact in a standstill, initially designed as an official treaty, was relaunched in the reduced form of security guarantees at the end of Biden’s presidency to circumvent the opposition of the Congress.
The Trump administration has now taken these talks, as well as discussions on a civilian nuclear agreement, according to three of the sources, while warning that it will take time to define conditions.
Influence of China
Trump’s Saudi trip is his first official visit and the second foreign trip since re -election, after attending the Pope’s funeral to Rome. He will also visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Under the staging of Trump’s visits, say diplomats, also lie an American effort calculated to reaffirm the influence and reshape economic alignments in a region where Beijing – Washington’s main economic rival – has gradually widened its solution to the heart of the petrodollier system.
Trump’s first trip abroad during his first mandate also started in Riyadh, where he unveiled $ 350 billion in Saudi investments.
Trump orders the profound confidence of Saudi management, rooted in close ties during his first mandate – a period defined by large weapons transactions and supporting us firmly for Bin Salman, even if world indignation has broken out on the murder of chronicler Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Istanbul.
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies now predict Trump to mitigate American regulations which have increasingly dissuaded foreign investments, especially in the sectors considered as a part of “the critical national infrastructure of America”, said five sources of industry.
During meetings with US officials, Saudi ministers will plead for a climate more favorable to businesses, especially at a time when China aggressively courts the Gulf Capital, industry sources said.
While contravening the economic rise of China could go beyond the agenda of Trump’s foreign policy, it will not be easy in Saudi Arabia. Since the launch of Vision 2030, China has been an integral part of the Kingdom’s plans, dominating the energy and infrastructure sectors with renewable energies.
